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No wonder people don't trust CNBC's Jim Cramer

Monday night, Jim Cramer was the picture of caution.  In the face of a 777-point drop in the Dow, the Mad Man of Wall Street told viewers not to be taken in by what some might see as an ultimate 'buying opportunity."

Uncharacteristically, Cramer was seated as he offered advice to neither sell (too late) or buy (too early).  In fact, he said investors should sit on their hands, and do nothing.  And Cramer was sitting on his hands, himself.  The message was, "This is not the time to go into the market.  It will go lower.  Do nothing."

Tuesday night, he began his show shouting "The stock market made me rich!."  And then, for an hour he preached, "You can't win if you're not in the game."  It was a 60-minute exhortation to get in there and buy stocks, even speculative ones.  Done right, it's OK to take chances, he counseled.

How's that for whiplash?  "Do Nothing," one night. "Go All In," the next.

What's going on?

Well, despite the lower-third video text crawls 'splaining how Tuesday was an almost 500-point UP day, it was obvious to anyone with media programming experience, Cramer was not in the house.  Or the studio.  This was an "evergreen" show, the kind of "Fundamentals of Trading 101" show Cramer does when he goes away.

The likely explanation is that Cramer was not on vacation, but off for the Jewish holiday.  And so, running a canned show was certainly acceptable.

But ... GEEZH!  CNBC, how about some scheduling smarts?  Is there no one watching Cramer's continuity?

This programming embarrassment, ironically, also came the day after CNBC's biggest maven apologized to his audience for getting taken in by Wachovia Corp.'s CEO who, two weeks ago, said the company's bad loans totaled "only" $10 billion.  Monday, we learned the number was $42 billion.  Cramer flogged himself for being gullible.

Let's hope he's equally contrite on Wednesday's show, lest Tuesday's viewers believe their leader has changed from bear to bull in the middle of the stream.

Disclaimer:  As a co-founder of MarketWatch.com, I competed against Cramer's TheStreet.com.  Before that, I freelanced for the Street.  Cramer he fired me one night.  He hadn't liked what I'd written about his company's marketing strategy. I was rehired the next day by Dave Kansas, the editor. 

Love my iPhone, but ....

So, last Friday I bought the iPod Touch.  Even as I was walking out of the Best Buy, I knew it was wrong.  Shudda got the iPhone.

Saturday, I did.

Now, my wife will tell you that I can buy some gadget and then leave it un-opened, in the bag even, for more than a week - until I "deserve" to open and play with it.  Some Presbyterian guilt thing, I guess.  Well, not for the iPhone.  Started playing with it last night during the Penn State game (GO PSU!!!).

This morning, added a few Apps.  Cool stuff. Then I tried the camera.   Took a picture of my home office. Oops.  And I'm not alone. 

So, we're going back to the AT&T store.

But I think I still love the iPhone.

Rotten retail outlook

Just back in Virginia after being away a long time, necessitating of course a strafing run across some retail outlets for restocking.

The landscape does not look good.  Linens and Things store near us, going out of business. Barbecues Galore nearby, also “Closing Sale.”  At a Sports Authority, where I bought two balls for Ben the Bouvier, cashiers changing shift, one saying to the other - after looking at a printout of the morning’s sales of $1,770.00 ... “Wow, real slow.”

From my time in retail, I’m also surprised we haven’t yet read prognostications about sales for Christmas.  seems to me that usually by this time of year, we’ve got the National Retail Federation or somebody forecasting sales.  Not that I’ve seen.

I did see this, on Forbes Online from press-release-a-week machine Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  (Do they do anything other than put out news stories that generate publicity for the firm?  They are very shrewd.)

Morning News 'Pack-o-Podcasts'

Listening to music or an iPod while you run is nothing new.  Millions of people do it.  Even my minister. I know because I gave him an iPod for Christmas last year. And I virtually gave up radio while commuting, in favor of hearing podcasts using a cassette-adapter in the car. 

Now I’ve gone a step further. Well, several thousand steps further. On my morning run, I catch up with the overnight news via podcasts.  I stack up a few favorites that total about 25 minutes. I created a “Morning News” Smart Playlist on my iPod so that when the shows download they go into that folder. It's easy then to  sync them to my Shuffle.   

My morning “pack ‘o podcasts” is:

•     Wall Street Journal Tech Briefing
•     Front Page Preview of The New YorkTimes
•     Cynopsis Digital (tech news)

    So far, I haven’t been able to find a good Sports update.  Anyone have a suggestion.

These short-form podcasts, from reliable and specialized information providers really give new meaning to the phrase “News on Demand.”

Jobs/Apple underwhelm

Well, 'Let's Rock' turned out to be "Let's Take a Nap."

The only surprise for me was negative.  The iTouch's low-end price is dropped only $70, to $229 ... still $30 more than the iPhone.  About the only thing you get the phone doesn't have is an audio recording capability. 

Wonder whether the iPhone has the same chip?  If it does, why wouldn't it be activated by the new 2.1 software?  Guess it doesn't.  So, the NEXT iPhone will have audio and (dare we hope?) video recording.  But, gotta wait for June '09 for that, I guess.

Wall Street was underwhelmed. The stock continued to tank, even as Jobs spoke.  Only good thing is that, while Jobs joked about speculation over his health, no one's writing that he didn't look OK.  Skinny, oh my, yes, but still "clicking."

What if Steve Jobs ...

... doesn’t appear on stage at “Let’s Rock” Tuesday? 

     Monday’s drop in Apple shares will look like nothing.  Even if Steve does appear, you can bet his every word, every phrase, and every wrinkle will be noticed, worried, and speculated on.

    Last June, there was talk because Jobs looked kind of wan and thin as he announced the 3G iPhone.  The chatter eased after he called The Times’ Joe Nocera and talked off the record. Nocera wrote, “While his health problems amounted to a good deal more than “a common bug,” they weren’t life-threatening and he doesn’t have a recurrence of cancer.”  That was in July.

    Then, a few days ago Fake Steve Jobs’ creator Dan Lyons, fanned the embers.  In e-mail to MacSoda.com, Lyons said, “People close to (Jobs) have been saying ... he’s really sick.”

    I’m just saying that the speculation about Tuesday’s Apple event is missing the elephant in the room.  It’s not whether there’s a slimmer, wide-screen Nano ... or an Apple TV 3.0 that acts like a Tivo.  It’s whether Steve is OK.  And as an ecstatic Mac user, and shareholder who bought last week, now down 11 points, that’s my concern.

    Analyst Gene Munster issued a note this afternoon on this concern.  The Piper Jaffary analyst said he expects Jobs to make the "Let's Rock" presentation. “We are confident that Steve Jobs will be presenting and we anticipate his appearance at the event to be viewed as a positive,” Munster wrote, as repoiryted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt on his Apple 2.0 blog.

I'll vote for ...

 
... the Presidential candidate who names Tom Friedman (NYTimes) Secretary of Education or Commerce.

Does anybody else miss TechTV

I still have the t-shirt.   It's one of my running shirts.

Got it when I watched, in studio, a 'Call for Help' broadcast in San Francisco.

Open a bank account, get an iTouch

In Midcoast, Maine, the Key Bank has gone beyond free toasters.  Open  a free checking account, they’ll give you a free Nano.  Open an account with integrated investing services, they’ll give you an iTouch.

Of course there are some catches.  To get the iTouch, you have to leave $25K with the bank ... checking, CD, savings, etc. for about 90 days.  And the bank will report the iTouch as interest income, and sent you a Form 1099-INT for the IRS.

Dona’s been after me to go for this deal, since I’ve been lusting for an iTouch for almost a year.  But I’ve just about decided that I’m going to for the iPhone, probably next month.  My time with AT&T is up and it’s not likely I’m not going to have a phone ... so, it seems the logical thing to do.

Nothing about the bank deal, tho, says you have to live in Maine get get the freebies: https://www.key.com/gen/html/ipod-for-checking.html

Diary of a mad bar keep

There’s a blockbuster reality TV show to be produced out of the real life (and perhaps death) of Nathan’s Restaurant in Georgetown. 

Carol Joynt owns the place, no thanks to her late husband, Howard, a rascal who had the bad taste to pass away after tapping the till for his (and hers) plush lifestyle, leaving the business flat busted and in trouble with the IRS.

For several years, Ms. Joynt has been blogging her story (she even wrote a book about it, nearly 10 years ago), at NathansLunch.com.  Often, her items have been about meeting famous people and interviewing them for her Cafe Q&A in the bar, or vacationing in New England, fabulous meals with friends in New York, or the trials of being a single mother. 

But now, it's getting serious.  Business is overtaking life. The lease is expiring.  And, in melodramatic form, the landlord is being unreasonable. It’s coming to The End. 

Nathan’s is an iconic part of Washington at Wisconsin and M Streets.  Ten years ago, Georgetown was more of a neighborhood, albeit tony and exclusive for the residences of government types and would-be power brokers.  But now, the neighborhood has changed, and everything has gone upscale.  A corner saloon, even a classy one like Nathan's, has trouble paying the bills.  There’s no walk-by traffic from office buildings, parking is troublesome, and traffic’s a mess.

Nathan’s probably won't be there in a year.  In her place, maybe an Apple Computer Store or a Gap, unless an angel investor appears to buy the building and gives Joynt a deal she can live with.  Her current lease is awful - high rent, she's responsible for all maintenance, and also liable for something like $10K/month in property taxes.

She’s kept the place afloat by working very very hard, helped by her General Manager and other staffers who must see in her the same focus, determination and ‘never give up’ spirit that I do.  However, the air seems to be coming out of the balloon. In today’s blog post, Ms. Joynt seems to be at a low point, frozen by resignation to what will be.

I think her story would make great TV.  The “Perils of Carol” line, with its story of a spouse whose great love for life doomed her to a decade-long struggle.

Will Nathans live or die?  Will Carol declare bankruptcy?  Will her son finish school?  What happens to the restaurant staff (imagine, loyalty in the bar!)?  Someone ... make this TV show ... and pay Joynt a big rights fee so she can get out of hock.